New poll predicts big swing against LNP MP Ted Sorensen.
New poll predicts big swing against LNP MP Ted Sorensen. Alistair Brightman

SHOCK POLL: Will One Nation be able to take Hervey Bay?

ONE in five people who voted for Ted Sorensen have turned to One Nation, a new poll has revealed.

But an exclusive News Corp Galaxy poll predicts Mr Sorensen, the three-term LNP MP for Hervey Bay, will hold onto the tightly contested seat despite a 10 percentage point swing away from him.

Galaxy polled 669 voters in the Hervey Bay electorate on Wednesday and Thursday.

Mr Sorensen received 47.8 per cent of the vote in 2015, but the poll indicates a possible LNP vote of 38 per cent.

One Nation's Damian Huxham is predicted to receive 25 per cent of the vote and the Greens four per cent.

The swing to One Nation is made made up of waning LNP support and the 16.8 per cent of people who voted in 2015 for the Palmer United Party and other minor candidates.

In contrast the vote for Labor's Adrian Tantini is predicted to be 31 per cent - steady on the 2015 election result.

Galaxy Research analyst David Briggs said although the One Nation vote was a "significant threat", Mr Huxham was expected to finish third.

"Around one in three voters, 31 per cent, are supporting minor party and independent candidates, with Damian Huxham accounting for 25 per cent of these," he said.

"His preference flow will then determine the outcome and this is likely to see Ted Sorensen returned with a slightly reduced majority."

Galaxy polled six other key regional electorates this week.

The poll revealed One Nation's preferences would be the key to deciding the election.

In the seat of Logan, One Nation even outpolled the LNP.

Mr Briggs said the high One Nation and other minor party vote showed the election would be tightly fought.

"Mixed results across a series of must-win seats for Labor suggests the state election on 25 November could go down to the wire. The election outcome is further complicated by a rejection of the major parties in many seats which will ensure the preference flows from the minor parties will play a critical role in deciding the outcome," he said.


Galaxy poll Hervey Bay results

Labor Party 31

LNP 38

The Greens 4

One Nation 25

Other 2